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even lower levels. Holland had first experienced such low rates in the seventeenth century, England in the early eighteenth century, and Europe generally in the mid-nineteenth century. Now Dutch finance crossed the Atlantic. The United States, with the Civil War behind it, was approaching the status of a great financial power in its own right. It no longer had to pay high interest rates for foreign capital. Commodity prices were falling here, as they were in Europe, and there was an enormous growth of capital investment. A de facto gold standard was established. While shortterm American interest rates continued their wild gyrations, occasionally soaring to high levels such as 186% in 1899, and declining to low levels such as 1% in the same year, long-term prime bond yields became stable and low in the European manner. This well-defined decline in bond yields dates from 1873 1875. The New England municipal average stood at 5.67% in 1873, at 4.15% in 1879, at 3.35% in 1889, and at a low of 3.07% in 1899. The railroad average stood at 6.50% high in 1873, at 4.66% in 1879 still well above municipal yields 3.48% by 1889 now close to municipal yields and hence thoroughly respectable and as low as 3.07% in 1899. This twenty-five-year bull bond market brought impressive capital gains only to those who were lucky enough to hold truly long-term bonds of high quality. High-coupon callable governments had been called away. Many railroad bonds had defaulted and many others had matured. Only a few high-grade bond issues had long enough redemption terms to permit the full benefit to investors from the dramatic decline in yields. Some examples of the change in yields and of market appreciation of corporate bonds are shown in the accompanying table:
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Such declines in yield would have created capital gains of 100% or more if they had applied to perpetual low-coupon bonds. In Europe just such capital gains had accrued to perceptive investors who had insisted on discount bonds and had avoided maturity or redemption privileges.
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Almost all American owners of high-coupon Civil War governments had long since lost their bonds through redemption. Most state, city, and corporate bonds had been redeemable or had had medium maturity. The nominal rates quoted in the municipal markets of the 1870 s were usually 5s, 6s, and 7s, but by 1900 they were 3s and 4s. Investors at this time began to seek long-term noncallable bonds. It was toward the turn of the century that many of today s 100-year maturity non-callable railroad bond issues were floated. During the two decades 1880 1900 very high premiums for government bonds were the rule. The national debt was reduced from $1,919 million in 1880 to $838 million in 1893. The national banks bought bonds to secure circulation. The new 41 2s of 1891, floated in 1877 1879 at 100, rose to an average price of 1143 4 by 1882, where their yield was only 2.65% to redemption; there was no gold premium and redemption seemed assured. In 1887 they sold at 1181 2 high to yield nothing to redemption. It was a scarcity market aggravated by huge Treasury surpluses, some of which were used to buy in Treasury bonds at high premiums. During this period almost all of the high-coupon government debt was redeemed and new issues were floated to refund a part of it as follows: 1881 $178 million 1882 $305 million Continued 31 2s, redeemable at pleasure of the United States, tax-exempt; sold at 100 = 3.50%. 3s of 1882, redeemable when no issues with higher rates were outstanding, exempt from local taxes; sold at 100 = 3%. Funded 2s, redeemable at pleasure of the United States, tax-exempt; sold at 100 = 2%.
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