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FIGURE 8.13
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Projecting Fibonacci targets.
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TECHNICAL INDICATORS: Confirming Evidence
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Point A to B = 53 points 53 .618 = 32.75 + 980 = Fib target of 1012.75 53 1.00 = 53 + 980 = Fib target of 1033 53 1.27 = 68 + 980 = Fib target of 1050 1010
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FIGURE 8.14
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Reaching Fibonacci and pivot point targets. (Source: FutureSource.
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Reprinted with permission.)
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The actual high was 1030.80. The last low before the chart was copied was 1009. The margin of error was quite a bit smaller using the pivot point numbers, but here was a phenomenal validating combination using the Fibonacci and pivot point analysis methods together. Another method for applying Fibonacci ratios is in calculating an extension of a price correction. Sometimes markets may go beyond the traditional 0.50 percent, 0.618 percent or 0.786 percent move. They can and do retrace back 100 percent of a move. This action would be considered a retest of the low or the formation of a double bottom. Sometimes you may wonder why a market made a newer low, only to bounce back, and you swear that it only made the new low to hunt for your stops. Fibonacci price extensions can help solve that mystery. If you apply a Fibonacci ratio multiplier of 1.272 percent or 1.618 percent of the initial move, you can determine potential support beneath the market once it has taken out the initial low (Figure 8.15). Using Fibonacci price objectives is similar in theory to pivot point analysis but does not have as detailed a mathematical equation. It deals with a relative length of a move rather than the time constraints such as a daily, weekly, or monthly range calculation that pivot point analysis needs.
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Elliott Wave Theory
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B High
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1.272% 1.618%
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FIGURE 8.15
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The difficult part about using the Fibonacci ratios is identifying the points of peaks and troughs.
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ELLIOTT WAVE THEORY
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Ralph N. Elliott began to develop his theories and views that prices move in waves in the 1920s. He identified impulse waves as those waves moving with the main trend and corrective waves as those waves going against the main trend. Impulse waves have five primary price movements, and corrective waves have three primary price moves (Figure 8.16). Elliott presumably used some of Fibonacci s work because of the way he described a wave cycle in a series of 5 and 3 waves, both Fibonacci numbers. The fundamental concept behind Elliot s theory is that bull markets have a tendency to follow a basic five-wave advance, followed by a threewave decline. The exact opposite is true for bear markets.
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5 B 3 A 1 4 C
FIGURE 8.16
Basic Elliott wave pattern.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS: Confirming Evidence
More experienced chartists, of course, might recognize that point five could possibly be considered the number one point of a 1-2-3 formation or the head of a head-and-shoulders formation. The one thing Elliott most wanted chartists to recognize is that his wave theory worked on long-term charts as well as intraday charts. A wave is a wave. Each wave contains lesser-degree waves while at the same time being a subset of a higherdegree wave. Each wave has its own set of rules. Here are the basic ideas: The first wave is derived from the starting point and usually appears to be a bounce from a previous trend. The second wave usually retraces the entire previous trend. This is what technicians generally consider the makings of a W or M (1-2-3 patterns), double tops or bottoms, or a head-and-shoulders chart pattern. The third wave is one of the most important. It is where you see the trend confirmation occur. Technicians jump on the trend and place market orders to enter a position from the breakout above the number one wave. You usually see a large increase in volume and open interest at that point. One rule that needs to be followed: For the third wave to be a true wave, it cannot be the shortest of the five waves. The fourth wave is a corrective wave. It usually gives back some of the advance from the third wave. You might see measuring chart patterns such as triangles, pennants, or flags, which are continuation patterns and generally break out in the same direction as the overall trend. The most important rule to remember about the fourth wave is that the low of the fourth wave can never overlap the top of the first wave. The fifth wave is usually still strong in the direction of the trend, but it is also during this final phase that the price advance begins to slow. From the rule of multiple techniques, indicators and oscillators such as RSI and stochastics begin to show signs of being overbought or oversold and the market begins to lose momentum. Wave A is usually mistaken as a regular pullback in the trend, but this is where you could possibly start seeing the makings of a W or M (1-2-3 patterns), double tops or bottoms, or a head-and-shoulders chart pattern. Wave B is a small retracement back toward the high of wave five, but it does not quite reach that point. This is where traders exit their position or begin to position for a move in the opposite direction. Wave C confirms the end of the uptrend. When confirmation is made by going beyond wave A, then another cycle begins in the opposite direction. Figure 8.17 shows an example of a bearish Elliott wave pattern. Using trendline analysis to help uncover the waves, you can see how clear the pat-
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