Day-Trading, Swing Trading in .NET

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Acting on Analysis
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Anytime there is change, there is opportunity. So it is paramount that an organization get energized rather than paralyzed. Jack Welch, CEO, General Electric
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love Jack Welch s statement! It is so true and applies so well to the trading industry. A trader needs to adapt and change with the ebb and flow of the markets. Sitting on a position, cutting out of a trade early, or not taking action on a well-thought-out trading plan all lead to emotional paralysis. Understanding the potential opportunities and then having the confidence to act on a belief in them will no doubt result in positive energy and, thus, build your trading skills. With that admonishment in mind, I want to introduce you to another valuable lesson using the pivot point method of price forecasting. By taking the daily, weekly, or monthly numbers, you can target a price level and then wait for confirmation from a recognized chart pattern. This combination of techniques can help you take advantage of the price swings from market reactions off those numbers. By having the calculations based on different time frames, you can use them whether you are day-trading or swing trading. When the market trades near these pivot numbers, the reaction can be a significant bounce from a support number or the market can simply stall before blowing through the support number and then continuing the trend lower. In my experience there is usually a reaction from the numbers; the longer term the calculation, the bigger the reaction. The only thing you really need to do as a trader is to get in the market, capture a significant price move, and then get out with a profit. 113
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DAY-TRADING, SWING TRADING: Acting on Analysis
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Figure 7.1 is a 60-minute chart from July 16 to July 30, 2002. Pivot point analysis, based on the weekly numbers in one of the biggest down months in S&P 500 index history, targeted the support level for the low within 9 points. The week ending July 19, 2002, had a high of 929.5, a low of 840, and a close at 844. The fundamental backdrop was extremely pessimistic with all the corporate accounting scandals, doubts that the economy could sustain growth, Middle East tensions flaring, and earnings coming in weaker than expected. Not many indicators were calling for a low or a turnaround in the equity markets. However, there were a few positive indicators, and pivot point analysis targeted 781.67 for the S2 low number for the week ending July 26, 2002. The hourly candle chart not only showed a version of a morning star formation but the actual low on the morning of July 24, 2002, was 771.30. The market stayed at that level for less than two hours. So why is this important If you only had access to the daily or monthly numbers, then you missed out on the weekly projection for what turned out to be an important and powerful turnaround in stock index futures history.
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Weekly pivot point 781 Head Morning star formation
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FIGURE 7.1
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Performing in volatility. (Source: FutureSource. Reprinted with permission.)
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Day-Trading, Swing Trading: Acting on Analysis
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As you look carefully at Figure 7.1, it also may reveal what I call a trade signal rich environment. Notice the inverted head-and-shoulders formation that developed This formation may have helped to add conviction that a bottom was in place and that higher prices were coming. Using the data from other markets also may help to give you more confidence in the strength or credibility than the target numbers for the S&P alone may have. For the week ending July 19, 2002, the Dow futures had a high of 8720, a low of 7945, and a close at 7998. Working out the pivot point calculations, the S2 number was 7446. The June Dow futures were projected to have support about 552 points lower on the week because they had closed at 7998 on Friday, July 19 (chart not shown). Another thing to keep in mind is that the Dow had closed at 9392 on July 5, so that would mean a decline of 1,946 Dow points in 10 to 15 trading days to test the S2 target area of support. The actual low: 7450! Now I know most investors were panicking, and I am sure some went short, thinking the stock market was going to zero. Being armed with this information may not have prompted you to go long, but I am sure that, if you had the numbers in front of you and were trading, you would not have sold short at the low. Figure 7.2, the hourly chart for Nasdaq 100 index futures, is not as exact as the previous example, but it helps to illustrate the point of alerting you to a selling opportunity or at least not getting trapped into buying highs. Remember, most successful traders do not get into the habit of buying highs. Taking the range for the previous week (August 26, 2002), the high was 985, the low was 873, and the close was 912.5. The weekly price target for the R1 number was 974, using the pivot point formula. On the first test of the 974 R1 number, the actual high was 973 so, in essence, the RI target did stop the market s advance initially. The next formation was a variation of a dark cloud cover. On the third try to advance beyond the 974 R1 resistance number, a variation of an evening star formation developed. It was not a textbook pattern the star looked more like a spinning top formation than a shooting star but it did warn of an impending top. It was with that second formation that stochastics generated a bearish divergence. At this point you might consider a short position. A sell signal was confirmed by the continuation of the bearish divergence from the stochastic oscillator, and the market was unable to maintain momentum above the 974 R1 level for any substantial period of time. The next example (Figure 7.3) again comes from July 2002, one of the most volatile time periods ever for the stock market. To have a reliable tool to help discover a target price or forecast a high for the range in this period was invaluable.
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