P3T Signals in .NET framework

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that as my risk target was, if the market retests the high, I would not want to be stopped out and then have to watch the market price fail off the high. I would want to be out only if prices made a new all-time high close above that level, which would signal the market s acceptance of a new higher price plateau and would probably spark an advance to newer highs. But it gets better. The week of the long white candle (January 25, 2002) has a high of 120.30, a low of 118.02, and a close of 120.18. By using the pivot point calculations, the key target resistance (R1) is 120.98. Combining that target number with the bearish harami cross gave a powerful one-two punch of confidence to sell short. As you can see, the high that next week (February 1, 2002) was 120.88 as the doji candle formed. Yes, I know it was not exactly on the number, but again it was close enough. With confirmation from the candle pattern and the prior high back in July 2001, this classified as a picture-perfect P3T sell signal! Take a look in Figure 6.7 at what happened to the U.S. Dollar Index after the bearish signals at the double top. In addition to those signals, the
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Double top confirmed with a bearish harami cross and weekly R1 pivot point
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Exponential moving averages (3, 9, 18 periods) cross over.
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FIGURE 6.7
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U.S. dollar follows the script. (Source: FutureSource. Reprinted with
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PIVOT POINT ANALYSIS: A Powerful Weapon
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three exponential moving averages (4-, 9-, and 18-week periods) made a dead crossover in April (when the short-term moving averages cross below the longer-term moving averages, a sell signal is indicated). The dollar s value continued the trend lower for many months. Now let s confirm the amazing discovery that pivot point analysis might combine with candle chart patterns to offer traders a powerful and consistent method for verifying trade signals. Figure 6.8, the 60-minute chart of crude oil futures, was printed out on August 1, 2002. Based on price action from the previous week (July 26, 2002, high of $27.75, low of $25.95, and close of $26.54), the R1 price target for the week was $27.54. By doing your homework on Friday or by downloading the numbers from the National Futures advisory service web site, you would have been armed with the potential price range for that week. It would have alerted you to watch the price action if crude oil got to $27.54. When it did, the ensuing bearish engulfing pattern combined with the bearish divergence on the stochastics confirmed and generated another textbook P3T sell signal. The actual high was $27.69, a difference of only 15 cents from the target number.
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Weekly pivot point R1 27.54
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Bearish engulfing
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Bearish divergence
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FIGURE 6.8
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Alert in crude oil. (Source: FutureSource. Reprinted with permission.)
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This move might not seem to be significant or dramatic at first glance, but if you look closely at this chart, you will notice that this was a decline of nearly $1.25 per barrel in less than 24 hours. That figure equates to $1,250 on a single futures contract. This next example is from a specific trade recommendation made in the Weekly Bottom Line Newsletter for the week ending May 10, 2002. In that recommendation, I explained fully how to examine and develop an exact P3T trade signal for the July cotton futures contract. Looking at the data from the prior week ending May 3, 2002, the high was 35.70 cents, the low was 32.85 cents, and the close was 33.52 cents. Using the pivot point calculations, the projected weekly target low for S1 was 32.35 cents, and the calculation for the R1 target high was 35.20 cents. Because I always do the monthly analysis, let me include that also. During the month of April the high was 40.71 cents, the low was 34.30, and the month ended at 34.71. Doing the pivot point calculations again to project the monthly targets for May, the S1 key support figure was 32.61 cents, and the monthly target for R1 resistance was 39.02 cents. Using figures from both the previous week and the previous month, you now have the potential projected price ranges for those time periods. I cannot stress enough why using the pivot point calculations to project two different time frames is important. If you think about it, in any given month there normally are four full weeks and 22 business days. Every week and every month will have an established price range. The high for the month will usually be made on one day, and it also will be the high for that week. The low for the month will usually be made on one day, and it also will be the low for that week. At the end of the month prices will usually settle somewhere in between. If you have a target level to alert you to focus on that market if and when prices trade near that level, it gives you an edge in the market, allowing you to act rather than react to the market. More specifically, if both the weekly and monthly numbers are close to each other, then more close examination to find an opportunity to place a trade and to develop a game plan in either futures or options is warranted. Figure 6.9 is the cotton chart and following are my comments and the exact trade recommendation as they appeared in the Weekly Bottom Line Newsletter for the week ending May 10, 2002: The monthly support is 32.61 and Friday s low was 32.85, which is close enough for me, especially after a continuous price decline from being at nearly 41.00 cents four weeks ago. Bullish divergence and a hammer formation on the candlestick improve the odds that a shortterm bottom is in place and a bounce is due. Look to buy near 33.25 to 32.65 and use 32.20 stop close only.
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