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I do the daily numbers at the end of the day to help me identify the next day s potential range or support and resistance points. It gives me a head start on my analysis so I am prepared for the next day s work. It helps me plan my trades. Similarly, the weekly numbers are done at the end of every week, and the same goes for the monthly numbers. Because most technical analysis is derived from mathematical calculations, the common denominators that are used are the high, low, close, and open. These figures are used for plotting most common charts, for example. More notable techniques such as moving averages, relative strength index, stochastics, and Fibonacci numbers are all calculated using mathematics based on those price points of interest. These prices are also what the newspapers publish. As technical analysts, we are trying to use past price behavior to help us get an indication of future price direction. This approach sounds absurd because no one can predict the future, right Well, I am not trying to predict the future. I just want an idea of where prices can go in a given time period, based on where they have been. After all, isn t that similar to the concept of drawing trend lines
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We have all heard the slogan about how to be successful investing in real estate: LOCATION, LOCATION, LOCATION. (Is that another symbolic reference that involves the Fibonacci number three ) In the trading business a similar important rule is what I call the rule of multiple verification: VERIFY, VERIFY, VERIFY. More than likely, I picked up this belief by reading a book back in 1981 or 1982 by Arthur Sklarew, Techniques of a Professional Commodity Chart Analyst. In writing about the rule of multiple techniques (page 3), he states: Technicians know very well that price chart analysis is not an exact science. No single chart technique yet discovered is infallible. Despite this lack of perfection, price chart analysis can very often give reliable forecasts of trend direction . . . Confirmation is therefore an essential component of every valid chart signal. In addition to comparing price charts of different contract months and time scales, it has been my experience that the accuracy of any technical price forecast can be improved greatly by the application of a principle that I call the Rule of Multiple Techniques. The Rule of Multiple Techniques requires that the chart technician not rely solely on one single technical signal or indicator but look for confirmation from other technical indicators. The more technical
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PIVOT POINT ANALYSIS: A Powerful Weapon
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indicators that confirm each other, the better the chance of an accurate forecast. The logic behind this rule is that, if individual timeproven techniques tend to be right most of the time, a combination of several such techniques that confirm each other will tend to be right even more frequently. I do not believe Sklarew talked about pivot point analysis as a means of technical analysis nor was he aware at the time he wrote that book of the art of candle charting. I believe that had he been, those ideas more than likely would have been in his book. Verify, verify, verify. (Remember that slogan because it has to do with the development of my method of analysis described later.) What it really means to me is this: Before deciding to invest or make a trade, if I understand the underlying fundamentals, I would want to look at a chart to confirm the trend, and then I would look at varying technical indicators to help confirm my beliefs. By incorporating different techniques such as pivot point analysis, I have figures that help speed up my analytical process. With these numbers I can draw lines on my charts indicating support and resistance levels to see if they help clear the visual picture. Let s do the math calculation on the monthly pivot point support number for sugar that was mentioned in the previous chapter. If you recall, I said the target support number was 6.09. The range for the previous month (September) for the March 2002 sugar futures contract was a high of 7.80 cents a pound and a low of 6.40 cents with the close at 6.63 cents. Working the formula, you have 20.83 as the total of your prices divided by 3 for a pivot point number of 6.943. Multiply the pivot point number by 2 (13.886) and subtract the high, and you should show 6.09 (rounded off) as the Support 1 number for the month of October. The sugar chart shown as Figure 6.1 shows the actual low was 6.11 cents, which occurred eight business days into the month of October two ticks from the projected pivot point support number! In addition, that low of 6.11 was reached in two days, forming a double bottom. I was already armed with the knowledge from the chart that a three-gap formation had formed, signaling the downmove was nearly over, especially after the third gap, the exhaustion gap, was identified. Knowledge of the monthly pivot number combined with gap analysis provided a strong, highly probable buy signal. The results speak for themselves. The pivot point analysis method used to target the exact low is not an exact science, and you have to allow for a margin of error in using these numbers. If anything, it can give you confidence to enter a position and implement a sound trading plan. At the very least, you should not have gotten caught up in selling short at that level. If you had identified a buying oppor-
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