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Tuesday s session sell open theory
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FIGURE 5.21
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Opening price relative to the day s high or low. (Source:
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FutureSource. Reprinted with permission.)
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CHART ANALYSIS: Volume, Open Interest, Price Patterns
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Of course, as with anything related to charts and markets, nothing is perfect about trading signals based on these opening patterns, which almost require that you be a day trader to use them. All markets form patterns, and many of these patterns repeat themselves consistently. But they may not materialize often, and even when you recognize them, there is no guarantee they will develop like the textbook examples.
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Pivot Point Analysis
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A Powerful Weapon
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Man s mind, once stretched by a new idea, never regains its original dimension. Oliver Wendell Holmes
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ivot point analysis is a famous technique that is used as a price forecasting method by day traders and floor traders alike. I know it is very popular among professionals I am one of them who uses it in my studies and market analysis. Numerous advisory services, brokerage firms, and independent traders use one form of it or another. Support/resistance, price range forecasting, pin-pointing tops and bottoms, and target trading are some of the other terms that are used to refer to numbers derived by pivot points. For most traders on the floors of the exchanges, pivot point numbers are considered to be common knowledge from the old school of trading. The influx of electronic off-floor day traders has really started to expand, and with that expansion comes the need for traders to educate themselves about various types of analysis. Pivot point analysis is a leading indicator rather than a lagging indicator like most of today s popular technical indicators that are based on past price action. It gives a trader the early advanced target levels that, in many cases, turn out to be the actual high or low and sometimes even both for a given trading session, as chart examples in s 7, 8, and 9 will show. Most novice individual investors and even brokers are not familiar with pivot point analysis. Many inexperienced investors may have a hard time incorporating this technique into their trading toolbox due to the time that
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it takes to calculate the numbers. But make no mistake about it. Professionals look at this analysis and so should you.
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MY START WITH PIVOT POINTS
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Before going any further, let me explain how I became interested in pivot point numbers. I picked up on the method back in 1985 as a colleague was showing me how to day-trade the Swiss franc and the deutsche mark. It worked fairly well in those days so I incorporated it into my analysis of the market for which I really had a passion, bonds. After using them for some time as a crutch, I was losing interest as a day trader. Then I experimented with using this concept for a longer time period, a week. Wow, what a discovery! Then I came to the conclusion that I would try to use them on a monthly basis because, after all, I was a follower of daily, weekly, and monthly charts. In fact, the Chicago Board of Trade used to give out a monthly bond chart, and a friend from the floor and I would get together for homework sessions. We would do longer-term chart studies using moving averages. I figured, why not look at the monthly price target, too Wow again! I discovered that I could look at a potential price range target in the future based on price action in the past. The longer the time frames, the more power these points seemed to have. I also discovered the power and leverage of options as they were introduced to the futures market with the first options market being, you guessed it, bonds. I hit a grand-slam home run that lasted through most of 1986. You see, I was bullish and the era of Reaganomics was happening! Interest rates were declining from 14 percent and bond prices were exploding (bonds have an inverted relationship between yield and price). That was a great time. I made a lot of money, and I made other people a lot of money, too. I somewhat retired after that and went to Miami and invested in a charter boat business, purchasing an interest in a 42-foot Morgan 416 sailboat. The problem is that I never chartered it because I was the one who always took it out. So the business was never a business. Have you heard the old expression that a boat owner s two best days are the day he buys a boat and the day he sells it I have to disagree although it is true that boats are a money pit and that whenever you buy anything that has marine in front of a necessary item to make the vessel run, the price of that part moves exponentially higher in cost. The long and short of it is that I got rid of the boat, got married (I am still happily married to the same woman), and went back into the futures business. It took time for me to find the groove and to get back into the markets, mainly because not only did the markets change but so did the U.S. and
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