CHART ANALYSIS: Volume, Open Interest, Price Patterns in Visual Studio .NET

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1-2-3 W bottom formation 2 3 1
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FIGURE 5.2
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W reversal. (Source: FutureSource. Reprinted with permission.)
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projecting indicator (Figure 5.3). Head-and-shoulder tops or bottoms are considered to be a strong indicator of major trend reversals, depending on how the market reacts at the neckline of the pattern. Four components are involved. Looking at the topping version of the pattern, first, the left shoulder is formed as prices rally and then fall back. Second, the market rallies again and a higher high occurs, forming the head. Third, prices slip back, reaching a low that about matches the previous low; rally to about the same height as the left shoulder high; then sink back again to the earlier lows, forming the right shoulder. The fourth element is the socalled neckline, a trend line along the bottoms of the two lows. If prices drop below the neckline, the reversing action of the head-and-shoulders topping pattern is completed, and prices are expected to continue to move lower after what is usually a tug-of-war in the vicinity of the neckline. The symmetry or distance is important in the head-and-shoulders pattern. The distance from the left shoulder to the head should be about the same as the distance from the head to the right shoulder. The levels of the shoulder highs should be about the same as should the levels of the lows
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Head Shoulder Shoulder
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Neckline
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Measuring objective
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FIGURE 5.3
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with permission.)
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Head-and-shoulders measurement. (Source: FutureSource. Reprinted
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that form the neckline. Next, if you measure the distance from the shoulder highs (some analysts use the top of the head) to the neckline and subtract that distance from the neckline, the result is the next price target level. You can use the same type of process with an inverted head-andshoulders bottom to project where the next higher price target should be.
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The definition of a gap for a technical analyst is an area on a chart that is left blank when the market trades from one period to another above or below the previous time period s high or low price range. Gaps do occur frequently in illiquid markets and, thus, have no importance to you. However, when gaps occur in liquid markets and on high volume, those are the gaps on which you want to focus. Gaps have several classifications and meanings. First, there are the common gaps, which are usually insignificant and are filled by prices retreating into the gap sometime down the road as they retest that price area. Previous
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levels left from gaps are considered targets of support when they are below the current market price or targets of resistance when they are above the current market price. The theory is that it took considerable energy to jump from one point to the next to create the gap in the first place. Returning back to that level is considered completing unfinished business. The next type of gap often comes in a series of three (Figure 5.4). The breakaway gap, as its name implies, signals a break from the previous price direction and the beginning of a new direction. It usually occurs at an area of congestion near a top or bottom. The second gap in this series is the midpoint or measuring gap. That terminology again is probably self-explanatory as it signals that the move is about half over that is, you can measure the distance from the first gap to the second and use that distance to get an idea where the market is headed. The third gap in this series is the exhaustion gap, which signals that market participants are tired and capitulating. It usually indicates that a directional trend is completed and a turning point is coming. To illustrate a point about the validity of multiple verification techniques, not only were the three gaps on the sugar chart (Figure 5.4) present and ob-
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