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FIGURE 4.36
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Multiple buy patterns in bonds. (Source: FutureSource. Reprinted with
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CANDLE CHARTS: Lighting the Path
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subject. Start with Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques by Steve Nison. Then study his other book, Beyond Candlesticks, or his recent video course. Libraries often have copies of these books, or you can go to a bookstore or to www.candlecharts.com to buy a copy for your personal library. Also, as mentioned in 3, if you ever have the opportunity to take a trading course taught by Dan Gramza, I strongly recommend that you consider taking it. One final point: Like other techniques, candle chart analysis is not an exact science. It is always necessary to validate signals and chart patterns manually, even when you have expert software designed to identify various patterns for you. I still believe the best way to get a feel for the market and to watch for certain identifiable patterns is by looking at the chart and incorporating other techniques such as moving averages and other forms of technical analysis for confirmation of a tradable setup. Looking at a chart with the pivot point numbers in front of you allows a more three-dimensional look into daily, weekly, or monthly price projections that could be of immeasurable value to your trading.
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Volume, Open Interest, Price Patterns
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Choose a job you love, and you will never have to work a day in your life. Confucius
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ow we are getting to the real meat and potatoes of technical analysis. This chapter explains and illustrates the importance of various chart patterns and analysis typically associated with bar charting but applicable to other types of analysis as well. We look first at volume and open interest, two items included on many data services but which, for the most part, seem to be ignored by a lot of individual traders with whom I have talked. These are important tools so let s review the basics.
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Volume is simply the number of trades executed during a specified period one trader buys and one trader sells and the volume is one. The volume figure usually released by the exchange is a total for all of the contract months of a given market. For example, if the e-mini S&P trades the March, June, September, and December contract months, the volume represents the total of all the trades, long and short combined, for all the months. Most technical analysts believe that volume is an indicator of the strength of a market trend. Because it is also a relative measure of the dominant behavior of the market, analysts regard volume as an important aspect
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CHART ANALYSIS: Volume, Open Interest, Price Patterns
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of analysis, particularly when trading stocks. Futures exchanges do not release volume figures for a regular session until the next day for many contracts. As a result, futures traders have had to adapt by using other methods to detect market strength such as pivot point analysis, moving average studies, Bollinger bands, or simply chart pattern recognition skills. When the volume numbers are released by the exchanges, they can be used to verify the trend or price action from a daily charting perspective. John Bollinger, one of my radio show guests, contends that volume is everything, especially when combined with a trading tool such as Bollinger bands, which he developed, or Larry Williams s accumulation/distribution indicator. In fact, Bollinger, who has a Chartered Market Technician designation from the Market Technicians Association and has been an analyst for FNN and CNBC, calls volume the crux of analysis. He also suggests that one of the best things a new trader can do to learn about the markets is to take a course in human psychology at a local community college. Bollinger has a wealth of technical knowledge, so his opinion is widely respected. Volume is important because it is a measurement of the market s acceptance or rejection of price at a specific level and time. There are several guidelines for using volume analysis on price charts. The first one is that if a market is increasing in price and volume is increasing, the market is considered to be in a bullish mode and can support further price increases. The exact opposite is true for a declining market. However, if a substantial daily market price increase or decrease occurs after a long steady uptrend or downtrend and has an unusually high volume period, it is considered to be a blow-off top or bottom and can signal a market turning point or trend reversal.
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