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FIGURE 4.28
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Shooting star top in silver. (Source: FutureSource. Reprinted with
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tug-of-war was going on between the bulls and the bears, and that a top had formed based on those combined candles. More important, I had a secondopinion indicator using pivot point analysis (discussed in detail in 6). Look at the after picture (Figure 4.29). It shows a powerful selling wave took command of the price in silver after this topping pattern occurred. The weekly U.S. Dollar Index futures chart (Figure 4.30) illustrates that candle chart patterns work not only on daily charts but for other time periods as well. This chart is a great example of a market that had multiple trading signals. Look at the shooting star formation that exposed the turning point for the market during the first week in July. The next candle was a hanging man that certainly warned that the trend was changing. The aftermath was a complete market reversal that resulted in a 950-point decline within 21 2 months. Look at the bearish harami that formed at the end of January. The market had made a long advance over nearly four months, and a long white candle formed (meaning the market closed above the open and there were little or no shadows). The next candle was a doji where the market had a wide
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FIGURE 4.29
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The market flamed out. (Source: FutureSource. Reprinted with
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CANDLE CHARTS: Lighting the Path
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Shooting star formation Bearish harami cross
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FIGURE 4.30
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Candles signal changing trends. (Source: FutureSource. Reprinted
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range but closed at or near the open. Another observation is that the market was forming a major double top with the June high. A plan of attack might be to sell short a position and place an initial stop as a close-only order above the January high. The reason I would have used that as my risk target is that if the market retested that high, I would not want to be stopped out and then have to watch the market price fall off from the high. I would want to be out only if a new all-time high close above that level signaled the market s acceptance of a new high price and would probably advance to newer highs. Eight to ten new records is one candle formation that I have not used often but does warrant mentioning. According to Japanese candle charting practices, when the market price either advances or declines by making eight to ten new highs or lows, it can signal that the advance or decline should subside. Such an occurrence could warrant establishing a position. In a bearish market, for example, when the eighth or ninth new low occurs and a bullish candle such as a hammer or a doji appears within one or two days, then a bottom potentially could be formed. I would construe that as a buy signal
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and put a stop close-only order below the lowest low. If the market truly is ready to turn around, it should not close below the established low at that time. The opposite is true for bullish or advancing markets. Look at the weekly U.S. Dollar Index chart again (Figure 4.30). If you count how many higher highs were made after the low in September 2001, you will see that nine record highs occurred prior to a bearish harami cross in early 2002. The ninth high was actually made by a doji. This confirmation by a different technique should have helped to initiate a response such as developing a short trading strategy. In addition to just selling a futures position, a trader is now armed with a good indication that the market may fall and may decide instead to buy put options, sell calls, or form some other bearish option strategy. Now examine Figure 4.31 for the after picture. Remember, this is a weekly chart so this move did not just happen overnight. Also, note that another eight to ten new records situation developed again on the downtrend in the first half of 2002. This chart demonstrates that candle patterns do work on different time frames.
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