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Arithmetic Mean Return In ation (CPI) Treasury bills (cash) Long-term corporate bonds U.S. equities Real cash yields Real long-term bond yields Equity risk premium 4.30% 5.92% 8.11% 11.79% 1.62% 3.81% 5.87% Geometric Mean Return 4.33% 5.96% 7.59% 10.74% 1.63% 3.26% 4.78% Standard Deviation (m) 3.11% 2.81% 10.65% 16.74%
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Note: Arithmetic mean returns are the simple average of yearly returns; they are used in the Monte Carlo simulation of projected returns. Geometric mean returns represent compound or cumulative investment results. Source: The Vanguard Group 2004.
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The Vanguard Center for Retirement Research 17
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Vanguard is a trademark of The Vanguard Group, Inc. 2004 The Vanguard Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.
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References
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Bernstein, Peter L., The Portable MBA in Investment, Peter L. Bernstein, editor, John Wiley and Sons, New York, NY, 1995. Bodie, Zvi and Michael J. Clowes, Worry-Free Investing, Pearson Education, Inc., Upper Saddle River, NJ, 2003. Bodie, Zvi, Alex Kane, and Alan J. Marcus, Investments: Fifth Edition, McGraw-Hill Higher Education, New York, NY, 2002. Bronson, James W., Matthew H. Scanlan, and Jan R. Squires, Managing Individual Investor Portfolios, in Managing Investment Portfolios: A Dynamic Process, 3rd Edition, CFA Institute, Charlottesville, VA, Forthcoming. Brennan, John J. and Marta McCave, Straight Talk on Investing, John Wiley and Sons, Hoboken, NJ, 2002. Employee Bene ts Research Institute, 2nd Quarter Pension Investment Report, www.ebri.org., Washington, D.C., 2003.
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Evensky, Harold R., Wealth Management: The Financial Advisor s Guide to Investing and Managing Your Client s Assets, McGraw-Hill Publishing, 1997. Feinberg, Phyllis, Lifestyle Strategy Grows as DC Default Option, Pensions & Investments, 32(5). March 8, 2004, p. 3. Greenwich Associates, Greenwich Associates Investment Management Research Survey, Greenwich, CT, September October 2003. Holden, Sarah and Jack VanDerhei, 401(k) Plan Asset Allocation, Loan Activity, and Account Balances in 2002, EBRI Issue Brief, www.ebri.org, Washington, D.C., September 2003. Hutchinson, James D. and Paul J. Ondrasik, Jr., Fiduciary Responsibility Under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974, in The Handbook of Employee Bene ts, Jerry S. Rosenbloom, editor, Dow Jones-Irwin, New York, NY, 1984. Kritzman, Mark P., The Portable Financial Analyst, Irwin Professional Publishing. Chicago, IL, 1995.
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18 The Vanguard Center for Retirement Research
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Vanguard is a trademark of The Vanguard Group, Inc. 2004 The Vanguard Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.
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Maginn, John L., Donald L. Tuttle, Dennis W. McLeavey, and Jerald E. Pinto, The Portfolio Management Process and the Investment Policy Statement, in Managing Investment Portfolios: A Dynamic Process, 3rd Edition. CFA Institute, Charlottesville, VA. Forthcoming. Tacchino, Kenn Beam and David A. Littel, Planning for Retirement Needs, 3rd edition, The American College, Bryn Mawr, PA, 1999. ` Vanguard 2001, Automatic Enrollment: Vanguard Client Experience, Vanguard Center for Retirement Research, Malvern, PA, www.vanguardretirementresearch.com Vanguard 2003, Participant Report Card for December 2003, Vanguard Center for Retirement Research, Malvern, PA, www.vanguardretirementresearch.com
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Vanguard 2004a, Lessons From Behavioral Finance and the Autopilot 401(k), Vanguard Center for Retirement Research, Malvern, PA, www.vanguardretirementresearch.com Vanguard 2004b, Investing in Treasury In ation-Protected Securities, Vanguard Investment Counseling and Research, Malvern, PA, www.vanguard.com
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The Vanguard Center for Retirement Research 19
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Vanguard is a trademark of The Vanguard Group, Inc. 2004 The Vanguard Group, Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.
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APPENDIX
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Argus Consulting Ltd NGO Retirement Plan Survey 2005 Results
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Demographics
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Nine nongovernment organizations (NGOs) participated in the survey this year, down from 16 in 2002. The respondents included a wide crosssection of NGOs with various missions.
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U.S. Employees
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33 percent of the respondent s organizations have fewer than 100 U.S. employees. 67 percent had 150 or more U.S. employees.
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International Staff
U.S. citizens 67 percent of the respondents have fewer than 50 international staff that are U.S. citizens.
Non-U.S. citizens 44 percent of the respondent s organizations have fewer than 100 non-U.S. citizens. 56 percent have 150 or more.
Most organizations operate throughout the world in very similar regions.
A MANAGER S GUIDE TO STRATEGIC RETIREMENT PLAN MANAGEMENT
Size of Annual Budget
The respondent s annual budget ranges from under $50 million to over $200 million. Annual Budget Percentage of Plans 22% 33% 45%