Java mobile phone sales/millions 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2002 in Java

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800 Java mobile phone sales/millions 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2002
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THE MARKET, THE OPPORTUNITIES AND SYMBIAN S PLANS
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Total mobile phones Total Java Asia/Pacific Europe North America Africa/Middle East South America
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Annual sales of mobile phones: total, by region and Java-compatible (source: ARC group).
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Total Java and non Java Java total
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Java and total revenue by application group/$bn
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Java content Java messaging Java commerce
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100 Java LBS 50 Java industry apps Java intranet access 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Java information services
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Figure 8.2 Revenue by application group (source: ARC group).
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Of particular interest to us, however, is that by 2006 we can expect the vast majority of mobile phones to support Java execution environments. These gures compare with PC sales of around 130 million per year and an installed base of around 400 million, according to eWeek.com. Mobile phone manufacturers are including Java functionality in order to generate revenue, which in turn requires that Java content is attractive to end-users. Figure 8.2 shows predictions for worldwide wireless data revenues in excess of $100 billion by 2006 and that most of these revenues will be generated by Java services and applications.
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It is worth making a few comments on the above revenue estimates: content covers areas such as standalone and multiplayer games, download, storage and playback of music, and video streaming and messaging the market for location-based services (LBS) is signi cantly underestimated: a conservative estimate is that it will be worth more than $30 billion in 2007 (Location Based Services 2002, ARC Group) games will be worth $4 billion in 2005 (the worldwide games market for PCs and consoles is $25 billion) according to The Times, 18 April 2003. The above statistics suggest that Java consumer services will be worth around $25 30 billion in 2005 (we ll talk about such services in more detail later). Generating the predicted revenues requires cooperation amongst the players in the value chain: content providers, operators, mobile phone manufacturers and key technology providers must work together.
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The following pie charts indicate the importance of Java as a development language on wireless devices in general and Symbian OS in particular. Figure 8.3 shows that the industry expects Java to be the most widely used language on wireless devices in 2004. Figures 8.4, 8.5 and 8.6 show
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Propriatary OS 3% Linux 8% BREW 9% Java 34%
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Palm 11%
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Symbian 13% Microsoft 22%
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Figure 8.3 Wireless applications to be developed in 2004, by language.
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Developer 2% Comms 7% Business 13% Consumer 40%
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Games 38%
Types of application on Symbian OS (all languages), at end of 2003.
OPL 3%
PersonalJava 5% Visual Basic 18%
C++ 55% MIDP 19%
Figure 8.5 Languages used to develop Symbian OS applications, at end of 2003.
the applications and languages on Symbian OS, from internal Symbian data. Note that numbers for MIDP only cover MIDlets speci cally sold or marketed for a Symbian OS phone: MIDlets that are not speci cally designed for Symbian devices are not included. Figures 8.5 and 8.6 show that most Symbian applications today are written in C++, with MIDP 1.0 the second most common language. However, MIDP 2.0 is the preferred developer environment and its popularity can only increase as Symbian makes more functionality available to Java developers.
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Visual Basic 5% C++ 30%
OPL 6% PersonalJava 8%
MIDP 1.0 20%
MIDP 2.0 31%
Preferred languages used to develop Symbian OS applications.
The Enterprise Market and the Correct Java Con guration
When Symbian was rst formed its main focus was on the consumer market, simply because vastly more phones are sold to consumers than to enterprises. However, in the last few years Symbian has been investing heavily in enterprise opportunities. Here are a few (non rigorous!) features of the enterprise market: enterprise projects are high value for middleware vendors (such as IBM Websphere, BEA Weblogic, Oracle Application Server, Sun J2EE) for the operators, mobile phone business users are low volume but high average revenue per user (ARPU); consumers are higher volume but lower ARPU although the enterprise market is large, manufacturers do not sell many mobile phones into it in the US, the growth in wireless devices is being driven by enterprise opportunities; growth in Europe and Asia was driven by the consumer market the popularity of WiFi in the US is fueled by business needs for mobile connectivity, email in particular; Europe is promoting Bluetooth as a lower cost, lower power, consumer-oriented alternative; adoption of WiFi in Europe is less than in the US because of the focus on higher bandwidth wide area solutions such as UMTS rather than LAN. Symbian s Java development is concentrated on MIDP and CLDC, together with the CLDC-compatible wireless Java pro les. This approach is well-suited to the consumer market, even though Symbian OS phones