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Iraq Con ict with Harvard professor Laura Bilmes In contrast to original estimates of the war s cost and the relatively modest $61 billion direct expense of the rst Gulf War, the two scholars report that the aggregate cost of the con ict will eventually be between $3 trillion and $5 trillion and this is the low end of their projection Alarmingly, this gure only re ects direct costs to the United States; it does not take into account the enormous devastation that the US military has wrought upon Iraq s infrastructure or its people Nearly 100,000 civilians have been killed in Iraq alone, with ve million displaced by the violence, and thousands of refugees have ed to neighboring Syria, Jordan, and elsewhere* Of cially, the United States spends $16 billion every month while in Iraq and Afghanistan, but this gure includes only direct expenses One of the biggest costs will be future health-care and disability costs for veterans The authors note that in previous wars the ratio of wounded to dead was twoto-one or three-to-one; however, new medical technologies have allowed many who might otherwise have died to survive extremely serious injuries In the past, wounded-to-fatality ratios were 4 or 5-to-1; In Iraq, the wounded-to-fatality rate is approximately 15-to-1 The new reality is that the United States has extensive long-term care costs for many thousands of disabled veterans for the rest of their lives After factoring in the cost of weapons and operations, health care, interest on debt used to fund the invasion, and future borrowing, the authors believe Iraq and Afghanistan will actually cost Americans $5 to $7 trillion
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* Documented Civilian Deaths, Iraq Body Count, wwwiraqbodycount org/database/ (last accessed June 3, 2008) Joseph Stiglitz, The Three Trillion Dollar War, Times of London, Feb 23, 2008, wwwtimesonlinecouk/tol/comment/columnists/guest_ contributors/article3419840ece
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(Continued ) In a world of resource choices, the Bush administration made an irreversible public policy choice: Every $1 trillion spent equals eight million forgone housing units, university scholarships for 43 million students, the salaries for 15 million US public school teachers, and some minimum health care for the United States 40-plus million uninsured $1 trillion could have covered the costs of building a US solar energy backbone we discussed earlier What about broader costs outside the United States to the Macro Quantum world Stiglitz estimates that for industrialized countries, the premium to oil prices which have more than tripled attributable to the war is also in the trillions And remember, higher oil costs have hurt the US economy and created spikes in other commodity products leading to food shortages in dozens of countries Observers like Jeff Sachs and others estimate that funds expended in one year of Iraq ghting approximately $200 billion could go a long way toward eradicating global health problems like AIDS, measles, tuberculosis, and malaria One can barely calculate these opportunity costs to the capitalist peace with so much human capital squandered and so much trade suppressed While some US hawks refute the book s charges by pointing out that Stiglitz and Bilmes didn t factor costs saved in preventing potential future attacks and maintaining access to oil, shouldn t the costs of such access and prevention have been scrutinized more closely in the months building up to the invasion As we ll see, there are many other cheaper, potentially more effective strategies in preventing terrorism (if indeed we prevented any), as well as the diversi ed energy alternatives to Gulf oil Af rming a quantum worldview on the Iraq miscalculation, Stiglitz believes that to hold off recession in the wake of 9/11, the invasion plans ballooned the US government s de cit, and the US Federal Reserve ooded the economy with liquidity (and low interest rates), which will lead not
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