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90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 00 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2 3 4 5 Developed Countries Emerging Countries
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Figure 24 Emerging vs Developed Nations: GDP Growth, 1987 2007 Forecast
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Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2007
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G7 economic growth has been much slower than that of emerging markets, due to lower birth rates, saturated markets, and already-high GDPs and productivity But the G7 has still bene ted from what is happening in developing countries Some of the biggest winners of this era are G7 consumers and the G7 companies that have expanded overseas The success of other nations through economic liberalization is partly responsible for higher real wages and an upwardly mobile middle class in the United States Globalization has democratized wealth by making former luxuries into everyday items From 1960 through 2008, US exports multiplied by nearly 80 times, from $305 billion to more than $24 trillion, with overall GDP jumping from $25 trillion to $116 trillion8 The percentage of the population in the United States living below 125 percent of the poverty line decreased from 311 percent in 1959 to around 168 percent in the most recent census data9 And while the US middle class (roughly de ned as households earning $35,000 to $75,000 a year in 2005 dollars) did shrink between 1967 and 2005, from 401 percent to 333 percent, these displaced middle Americans were not getting poorer The share of the population earning less than $35,000 dropped 4 percent, while the number of households earning more than $75,000 has actually jumped 106 percent to 566 percent10 We cannot, nor should we, wish these globalizing trends away More people worldwide are being unshackled from scarcity, illness, illiteracy,
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and poverty faster than ever before, and this can continue inde nitely with strategic planning and maintenance to the Macro Quantum trade system But doing so requires us to adopt a different worldview, one that focuses on the interplay of countless more players in the trade and investment game
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Old Money, New Money In 1987, Forbes magazine launched its rst world billionaires ranking Roughly one-third of the list was American, 185 percent Japanese (re ecting Japan s economic zenith before its bubble burst), and 267 percent European While the United States total share has grown to 443 percent of the 2008 list, the rise of emerging markets is noteworthy including the rst billionaires from Cyprus, Oman, Romania, and Serbia India accounted for an impressive 36 billionaires, outpacing Japan as home to Asia s largest number of extremely wealthy individuals Russia weighed in third, after the United States and Germany, with 53 billionaires South Korea contributed 10 super-wealthy (up from two in 1987); Brazil and mainland China boasted 20 billionaires apiece (with another 21 from Hong Kong and eight from Taiwan), while Turkey had 25 (no Turks made the list in 1987) The rich list s demographic transformation re ects the amazing wealth creation that has occurred in newly industrialized and developing states over the past two decades Not long ago, private ownership was taboo in many of the countries that now boast nearly as many Horatio Alger tales as the United States For example, Russia s wealthiest man, Roman Abramovich, was an orphan who went on to become a state governor and eventually sold his majority stake in oil company Sibneft in 2005 for 13 billion dollars Young Russians make up the bulk of the top 25, lling seven seats Many have prospered in resource companies including aluminum, nickel, oil, and gas And the average age of these seven Russian billionaires Less than 44 years old
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Back in the late 1980s, no names would have been found from countries like China, Russia, India, or Mexico But in 2008, only four of the top 25 in the Forbes list were Americans and just ve were from Europe A remarkable 16 of the 25 come from formerly poor countries Mexican telecom magnate Carlos Slim has been wrestling for Forbes top spot with perennial uber-rich tycoons Bill Gates and Warren Buffett (by some accounts his net worth has surpassed that of the two Americans) To put it into perspective: Slim s wealth is roughly 65 percent of Mexico s annual economic output If Bill Gates had a similar share of US wealth, he would be worth a remarkable $784 billion nearly eight times his current holdings Four Indians Lakshmi Mittal (owner of the world s largest steelmaker), the bickering Ambani brothers (inheritors of the Reliance group, India s most valuable company), and KP Singh (real estate) make up half the top eight slots India now has more billionaires in the uppermost echelon of rich than any other country, save the United States While recent stock market volatility may have reduced some billionaires into mere centamillionaires, there nonetheless has been a great proliferation of wealth
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