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availability of cheap credit The Thai economy looked quite buoyant, but it was being propped up by borrowed money While some would argue this is a perfectly ne economic strategy, wasteful investment leads to overcapacity and asset bubbles, and possibly lessens the ef ciency of the entire economy So while the country looked like it was still humming, debt needing to be repaid loomed on the horizon Allowing the baht to oat in 1997 helped revive the export sector in Thailand, but the precrisis economy fueled by easy money, exorbitant debt, and asset bubbles probably wasn t nearly as strong as GDP indicated This happens in wealthier countries, too For the past two decades, the United States has had relatively low interest rates that have kept Americans borrowing money to buy everything from houses to at screen TVs As the property boom continued, people borrowed against in ated real estate values through home equity loans Using these borrowed funds for consumption in turn pumped up GDP even more The high GDP growth rates experienced in the early part of the millennium may simply re ect elevated debt US consumer credit card debt during the 2000 2007 period jumped from $574 billion to $915 billion19 And as witnessed in other boom-bust cycles, some of this debt may not be paid, while future economic activity may slow because of such overhang, actually reducing US GDP somewhere down the road as the current credit crisis seems to suggest According to Freddie Mac (before nationalization!), the number of risky mortgages has also increased In 2000 approximately 1 percent of adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) were interest only, but this grew to more than 20 percent by 2005: Negative amortization loans, grew from roughly 3 percent of all adjustable rate mortgages to more than 30 percent in 200520 Undoubtedly this will impact GDP down the road Or consider government spending If the US government borrows $500 billion to $1 trillion dollars annually from investors abroad to cover de cit spending, current GDP may appear in ated as that money circulates in the economy, but eventually servicing this debt will reduce GDP in one way or another Borrowing money pumps up the economy in the short run but may de ate it over the longer run and could hurt the country s currency, too Some borrowing can be good Companies generally borrow money to invest in productive assets that generate long-term value that is
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greater than the debt service (although as Thailand showed, it can also lead to overcapacity) That s generally not what consumer and government borrowing does For example, an extra few hundred billion for defense spending, generally goes toward short-term versus productive investments So, if government borrows $500 billion, or 35 percent of GDP to nance foreign invasions, is it 100 percent true, sustainable GDP expansion Will this produce future GDP Perhaps if we devised and monitored a GDP credit de ator statistic, we might have been less sanguine over American growth over the last decade While economists may debate the value of debt, there clearly comes a time when the use of debt is bad for an economy; at a minimum, there is a point at which it distorts our state of economic health If you borrow today and in ate today s GDP, but this in turn sets us up for a slowdown later, is headline GDP that meaningful GDP alone is not enough to paint a true economic picture; it must be supplemented by other economic and nancial data to allow for better ne tuning
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As Halstead and others noted in 1995, economic indicators de ne the economic problems that the political arena seeks to address If the nation s indicators of economic progress are obsolete, then they consign us to continually resorting to policies that cannot succeed because they aren t addressing the right problems 21 Due to its ease of use, GDP is often used as a proxy indicator of more dif cult-to-measure concepts, such as progress and well-being a purpose for which it is woefully ill-suited While there is a logical relationship between economic prosperity and well-being, GDP is too limited in scope to paint a suf cient picture of societal welfare, and therefore too limited to be the only standard by which we make policy It s like driving with only a speedometer One popular modi cation of GDP is green GDP, which is also re ected in the World Bank s genuine savings model Although there are numerous versions of green GDP, they essentially correct GDP to counter natural resource depletion As John Hicks noted in his Value and Capital in 1947, Can a nation s entire GDP be consumed without undermining its ability to produce and consume the same GDP in
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