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because of population growth, not that much different from the G7 s, while Russia sped by with a remarkable 74 percent per capita growth because its population shrank by nearly 05 percent per annum In the case of India and China, India s growing population cuts its per capita growth rate to 68 percent versus 102 percent for China, whose population growth has been slowing Focusing on GDP per person also affects comparisons of global economic health over time From 2002 2007, world GDP grew by an average of 45 percent a year, its fastest for more than three decades though not as fast as during the golden age of the 1960s when annual growth exceeded 5 percent Because the world s population is now growing at half the pace it grew in the 1960s, per capita world income has actually increased by more over the past ve years than during any other period on record (see Figure 92) The Economist notes that the world has never had it so good 15 Today we de ne recession as two consecutive quarters of aggregate GDP stagnation or contraction, but if we think about it relative to population, we may have had more recessions than of cial government data has suggested The whole notion of recession and the corresponding policies to combat recession may be very different For example, stagnant GDP in depopulating countries like Italy, Russia, Germany, or Japan actually isn t so bad But in countries with growing
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6 World GDP 5 4 3 World GDP per person 2 1 0 1957 62 67 72 77 82 87 92 97 Average of Five Years Ending 2002 07
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Sources: IMF; Angus Maddison; EIU estimates
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populations like the United States (and most developing countries), the average citizen may be worse off But one can see the political issues and distortions such statistical debates create For example, if a country likes to boast about its total size like some have accused the United States of doing16 then it would be unpopular to switch away from absolute GDP growth (although this, too, can be impacted by the value of the US dollar, as discussed above) GDP can be adjusted to a PPP or per capita basis to gain some accuracy, but it is dif cult to check the challenges of intentional manipulation and poor data collection We ve also seen that GDP fails to measure noncash economic activity; nor can it distinguish between productive uses of cash and so-called regrettables, spending on crime and disaster remediation While GDP has a wide margin for error and distortion, it is doubtful other indicators will be entirely immune from these problems But a more important question is whether we can rely on this economic indicator to guide us on policy debates and decisions After all, what is progress Economic indicators for the last century have become the main gauge for most national and global policies, but there are enough limitations and de ciencies with such numbers that the indicators we use warrant reconsideration in the Macro Quantum world
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As we ve seen, GDP expansion is not necessarily per capita growth But this becomes even more blurred when GDP growth is fueled by soaring debt levels Consider the plight of Thailand during the 1997 1998 Asian nancial crisis Before the Thai government abandoned its currency peg to the US dollar, it had experienced phenomenal GDP growth for decades; indeed, from 1965 to 1990, its economy expanded by an average of 71 percent per annum17 As the dollar rose in value and made the Thai baht less competitive in the 1990s, Thailand s export machine slowed and domestic investment took over as a bigger part of the country s GDP, although strong growth continued, averaging 82 percent in 1991 199618 The growth of the early 1990s was a result of domestic investment in factories, real estate, and other assets predicated on the
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