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measure It excludes a number of factors that contribute to economic well-being, like the value of nonmarket goods and services (especially natural resources) and informal and unpaid activities The contributions of stay-at-home mothers (or fathers) are ignored as well as in-kind trade Yet anytime a dollar changes hands GDP is boosted, even if wellbeing or value is not created If a housekeeper and lawn care company are hired to perform some domestic duties previously performed by a family member without pay, GDP is boosted Since GDP includes all activities where money changes hands, it necessarily views cash-generating activities related to natural disasters and crime in terms of economic gains For example, earthquakes and hurricanes register immense damage and disrupt thousands of lives, yet they also typically generate economic and labor expansion through rebuilding efforts While disasters may raise GDP by causing money to change hands, they do not create well-being French classical liberal theorist Fr d ric Bastiat pointed out this faulty rationale nearly 160 years ago in his parable of the broken window7 Bastiat describes a shopkeeper whose window is broken by a boy Because repairing the busted window makes work for the glazier, who will then buy bread, bene ting the baker, who will then buy shoes, bene ting the cobbler and so on, the townspeople hail the mischievous boy as an economic benefactor, ignoring the opportunities the shopkeeper may have had if he had not been forced to spend his money on a new window Perhaps he would have spent the money to hire a new worker for his store, or saved for his daughter s education Likewise, GDP is unable to capture the fact that victims of oods, hurricanes, wild res, and earthquakes are merely replacing destroyed property (if even possible), not adding to their wealth or happiness By this equation, the most productive citizens for a national economy are terminally ill cancer patients going through a costly divorce, because they generate a lot of economic activity8 Figure 91 illustrates some of the concepts such as leisure, health, and satisfaction that GDP cannot measure, as well as some concepts that are included in GDP but do not contribute to wellbeing, such as depreciation and regrettables such as spending on crime and disaster remediation If, for a moment, we set aside the philosophical issue of what we want to measure and consider GDP not as a proxy for well-being
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Happiness Living conditions Genetics Family Activities Friends Work satisfaction Community ties Health (Inequality) Nonmarket activity (Unemployment) (Insecurity) Environment Wealth Consumption Net investment Regrettables Net income going to foreigners Economic well-being GDP Leisure Depreciation
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Figure 91 What GDP Does (and Does Not) Measure Source: Deutche Bank
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but simply as a measure of economic activity, there are still signi cant statistical challenges surrounding how GDP is actually measured In his 1950 book On the Accuracy of Economic Observations, Princeton Economics Professor Oskar Morgenstern reminded us that national income may only be measured within a 10 percent margin of error, although economic policy advisers often propose policies based on adjustments in national income of 1 percent or less a shift that is statistically insigni cant9 Although data collection has become more sophisticated since Morgenstern s book was published, accuracy remains as elusive as ever Many countries lack adequately trained professionals capable of observing economic data and rely instead on GDP estimates made by the Word Bank Some developing countries are experiencing fundamental economic and social changes that bring more stakeholders into the market, changing the way people invest, get employed, earn money, and consume; statisticians may have a dif cult time keeping up Nor can aggregate statistics at a national level capture regional disparities within these states Even in OECD countries, only within the last 70 years have government agencies and private economic researchers systematically collected economic data, and this data is still prone to manipulation and error
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